[Turkmath:7598] Yeditepe Universitesi Matematik Bolumu Seminerleri: 12 Nisan 2011 /Yediitepe University , Department of Mathematics, Departmental Seminar onApril 12, 2011

[Itır Mogultay]

Degerli Liste Uyeleri;

Yeditepe Universitesi Matematik Bolumu Seminerleri kapsaminda 12 Nisan Sali gunu  Yeditepe Universitesi Matematik Bolumu Ogretim Uyesi Prof. Dr. "Alexander Papadopoulos " konusmaci olacaktir.  Konusma ile ilgili detayli bilgi asagidadir:

Gun: 12 Nisan, Sali, 2pm-3pm.
Yer: Yeditepe Universitesi Matematik Bolumu Seminer Odasi.
Konusmaci: Prof. Dr. Alexander Papadopoulos (Yeditepe Universitesi).


Baslik: Prediction of the Next Earthquake in the North Anatolian Fault Zone Using the classical and Bayesian Predictive Distributions

Ozet: The estimation of the time of the next earthquake, in a given seismic region, is one of the most useful and difficult tasks of scientists who study and predict earthquakes. In this study, we examine the previous times between earthquakes in the North Anatolian seismic region near Izmit Turkey. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test shows that the time between earthquakes is a random variable that follows the exponential distribution. Based on this finding the classical and Bayesian predictive probability distributions of the time for the upcoming earthquake are derived. The mean and median of the two predictive distributions are used to estimate the time for the next earthquake; furthermore prediction intervals for the time of the next earthquake are derived. It is found that the Bayesian approach gives better estimates than the classical approach.
Elementary probability theory will be reviewed in order to make this seminar appealing to audiences of all areas of mathematics and physics.


Saygilarimla;
ITIR MOGULTAY.

____________________________________________________

Dear Group Members;

On April 12, 2011, our seminar speaker at the Department of Mathematics, Yeditepe University,  will be  Prof. Dr." Alexander Papadopoulos" from the Department of Mathematics, Yeditepe University. The title and the abstract of his talk are given below:

Date: April 12, 2pm-3pm
Place: Seminar room, Department of Mathematics, Yeditepe University
Speaker: Prof. Dr. Alexander Papadopoulos (Yeditepe University)

Title: Prediction of the Next Earthquake in the North Anatolian Fault Zone Using the classical and Bayesian Predictive Distributions

Abstract: The estimation of the time of the next earthquake, in a given seismic region, is one of the most useful and difficult tasks of scientists who study and predict earthquakes. In this study, we examine the previous times between earthquakes in the North Anatolian seismic region near Izmit Turkey. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test shows that the time between earthquakes is a random variable that follows the exponential distribution. Based on this finding the classical and Bayesian predictive probability distributions of the time for the upcoming earthquake are derived. The mean and median of the two predictive distributions are used to estimate the time for the next earthquake; furthermore prediction intervals for the time of the next earthquake are derived. It is found that the Bayesian approach gives better estimates than the classical approach.
Elementary probability theory will be reviewed in order to make this seminar appealing to audiences of all areas of mathematics and physics.


Sincerely;
Itır Mogultay
Assistant Professor
Department of Mathematics
Yeditepe University, Turkey

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